![]() He added: “We’re going to review this very carefully and assess a different approach as we deal with these types of storms.” “We need to make the uncertainties clear.” “It is incumbent on us to communicate forecast uncertainty,” Uccellini said. National Weather Service director Louis Uccellini, in a press call this afternoon, said his agency did not do enough to communicate the uncertainty in the forecast for New York City and Philadelphia, where snowfall predictions were far too high. One weather professional I observed on national TV last night did an excellent job of explaining the uncertainty in the forecast for the NYC area was The Weather Channel's Carl Parker.īut not everybody accomplished that task deftly.Ĭapital Weather Gang's Jason Samenow has some interesting perspective in his posts today from NWS director Louis Ucellini. ![]() The answers may have more to do with communicating inherent forecast uncertainty than with the actual forecast itself. When forecast snowfall totals of 2 to 3 feet prompt the shut down of the nation's biggest city, then fall short by half or more, questions are (rightfully) being asked of us as professional meteorologists. But it also has enough skill to provide tremendous value for weather consumers, business and the US economy. Weather forecasting is an inexact science at times. NOAA's upgraded GFS seems to have actually outperformed the European Model in this storm. At first glance the excellent performance of NOAA's upgraded GFS model, which accurately painted a more eastern storm track lower snowfall totals for NYC and points west. ![]() ![]() In fact there are many forecast success stories with this storm. ![]()
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